JRE #1776 - Steven E. Koonin

11-Feb-22

Joe Rogan Podcast: #1776 – Steven E. Koonin

This podcast features a deep dive into the complexities of climate science with Steven E. Koonin, a theoretical physicist, former Chief Scientist for BP, and author of “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters.” The conversation unpacks contentious topics like the extent of human influence on climate change, the accuracy of climate models, and the potential consequences of radical climate policies. Underlying themes explore the role of science in public discourse, the dangers of ideological narratives, and the need for nuanced thinking in a complex and evolving field.

Major Topics Covered:

Koonin’s Credentials and Background: This sets the stage by highlighting Koonin’s impressive scientific background, including his early academic achievements at Caltech and MIT. Rogan establishes Koonin’s expertise to counter potential criticisms based on his former role with BP.
Koonin’s Position on Climate Change: Koonin explicitly states his belief that climate change is real and that human activity contributes to it, but he challenges the alarmist narrative surrounding the extent of human influence and the accuracy of climate models.
The “Unsettled” Science of Climate Change: Koonin argues that climate science is far more uncertain than portrayed by mainstream media and political rhetoric. He highlights the complexities of climate modeling, the limitations of observational data, and the potential for natural variability.
The Influence of Ideology and Narrative: Koonin criticizes the prevailing narrative that climate science is “settled” and that any dissent is tantamount to denial. He argues that this ideological pressure stifles scientific inquiry and honest discussion, ultimately harming the integrity of science.
The “Red Team” Review: Koonin advocates for a more rigorous review process for climate science reports, similar to what is used in other fields like spacecraft engineering. This would involve independent experts critically evaluating the data and conclusions, promoting objectivity and transparency.
The Misrepresentation of Hurricane Data: Koonin points to specific instances where climate reports present misleading data on hurricane intensity, exaggerating the trend of increasing storms and their damage. He emphasizes the need for a broader view of historical records and the role of natural variability.
Greenland’s Ice Melt: Koonin analyzes data showing that Greenland’s ice melt is not accelerating as rapidly as often reported and that it has experienced similar rates of melt in the past. He emphasizes the importance of understanding natural cycles and their impact on the ice sheet.
The Role of Ocean Currents: Koonin highlights the significant role of natural variations in ocean currents in driving long-term climate patterns. These cycles, often ignored in mainstream discussions, play a crucial role in determining ice melt, sea level rise, and overall climate change.
Sea Level Rise and Model Predictions: Koonin compares the actual rate of sea level rise over the past century with model projections for the future. He argues that the predictions are overly alarmist and not supported by current observations, raising concerns about the accuracy of the models.
The Economic Impact of Climate Change: Koonin examines government reports on the economic impact of climate change, showing that the projected damage is minimal and could be mitigated through steady adaptation and resilience strategies.
The Economic Impact of Energy Transition: Koonin explores the potential costs and disruptions associated with radical energy transition plans, particularly those focused on eliminating fossil fuels. He emphasizes the importance of considering the global energy landscape, the needs of developing countries, and the technological and economic feasibility of such shifts.
The Role of Carbon Dioxide: Koonin addresses the complex relationship between carbon dioxide and climate change. He explains that while CO2 is a greenhouse gas, it also plays a vital role in plant growth and that increased CO2 levels have led to a “greening” of the planet.
The Carbon Cycle and Natural Variations: Koonin explains the natural carbon cycle, emphasizing the vast scale of carbon exchange between the atmosphere and Earth’s surface. He argues that human contributions are relatively small and that efforts to mitigate climate change should focus on leveraging natural processes, such as tree planting, rather than relying solely on technological solutions.
Climate Change as a “Value Judgment”: Koonin asserts that the appropriate response to climate change is ultimately a value judgment, not a scientific one. This involves weighing risks, costs, benefits, and various ethical considerations, which are the purview of policymakers and the public.
The Importance of Adaptation and Resilience: Koonin emphasizes the importance of adaptation as a primary response to climate change, arguing that it is a more effective and pragmatic approach than seeking to prevent all change. He points to the success of human adaptation in the face of past climate fluctuations.
The Danger of “Climate Science Denial”: Koonin critiques the use of the term “climate science denial,” arguing that it is a pejorative and misleading label that stifles genuine debate and prevents nuanced discussion of the scientific uncertainties.
The Role of the Media: Koonin criticizes the media’s tendency to promote alarmist narratives and suppress alternative views on climate change. He points to instances where media outlets have misrepresented scientific findings or refused to publish dissenting opinions.
Geoengineering: Koonin explores the potential for geoengineering, such as injecting reflective particles into the atmosphere, as a tool to mitigate climate change. He acknowledges the potential benefits but highlights the significant risks, ethical concerns, and lack of adequate research.
The Need for Climate and Energy Literacy: Koonin underscores the importance of public education on climate science and energy systems, arguing that informed decision-making requires a deeper understanding of the complexities involved.

4-Point Summary of Major Topics:

Koonin’s Credentials and Background:
- Koonin is a renowned physicist, not a climate scientist, which adds weight to his critique of the field from an outsider’s perspective.
- His past role with BP is a controversial aspect but allows him to speak to the realities of the energy system, a crucial aspect often overlooked by climate activists.
- Koonin’s expertise and understanding of complex scientific models are highlighted, setting the foundation for his arguments about the limits of climate modeling.
- This section lays the groundwork for a balanced discussion by emphasizing Koonin’s credentials and experience, which are vital to address potential biases.
Koonin’s Position on Climate Change:
- Koonin acknowledges the reality of climate change and the role of human activity, but he does not subscribe to the alarmism often propagated by mainstream media and political figures.
- He believes in the need for responsible action but stresses the importance of careful analysis, sound science, and avoiding drastic measures based on fear and speculation.
- Koonin’s position is nuanced, acknowledging the reality of climate change while challenging the “settled science” narrative that shuts down debate and critical thinking.
- This sets the tone for the podcast, highlighting Koonin’s commitment to both acknowledging the issue and promoting critical engagement with the science.
The “Unsettled” Science of Climate Change:
- Koonin presents a compelling case that climate science is far from settled, with significant uncertainties and limitations in both modeling and data collection.
- He highlights the complexities of climate systems, the inherent challenges of predicting long-term trends, and the potential for natural variability to play a significant role.
- Koonin argues that a more nuanced understanding of the science is crucial to avoid oversimplification, fear-mongering, and knee-jerk reactions to potential threats.
- This section lays out the core of Koonin’s argument, demonstrating the need for a more cautious and less ideologically driven approach to climate science.
The Influence of Ideology and Narrative:
- Koonin criticizes the prevailing narrative that climate science is “settled” and that any dissent is deemed “denial,” effectively silencing legitimate questions and hindering scientific progress.
- He argues that ideological pressure and the desire to preserve a specific narrative are undermining the integrity of scientific discourse and preventing honest discussion of uncertainties.
- Koonin points to the chilling reality of scientists being afraid to speak out for fear of repercussions, demonstrating the harmful impact of this stifling atmosphere.
- This segment delves into a critical underlying theme of the podcast, exploring the insidious influence of ideology on science and the dangers of suppressing dissenting voices.
The “Red Team” Review:
- Koonin advocates for a “Red Team” review process, a rigorous and objective assessment of climate science reports by independent experts who can critically evaluate data and conclusions.
- This approach, common in other fields, aims to promote transparency, accountability, and a more robust scientific process, helping to mitigate the influence of bias and ideological agendas.
- Koonin argues that the current review process is inadequate and that a more independent and critical evaluation is essential to build trust and confidence in the science.
- This section presents a concrete proposal for improving the scientific process in climate science, advocating for a more objective and rigorous approach to address the concerns about ideological influence.
The Misrepresentation of Hurricane Data:
- Koonin demonstrates how climate reports can present misleading data on hurricane intensity, focusing on short-term trends that exaggerate the perceived increase in storms and damage.
- He argues for a broader view of historical records and the inclusion of natural variability, emphasizing that a more holistic understanding is crucial to avoid alarmist conclusions.
- This section provides a specific example of how data can be manipulated to support a predetermined narrative, highlighting the need for transparency and critical analysis.
- This segment underscores the importance of looking beyond short-term trends and considering the full context of historical data, revealing the limitations of relying solely on cherry-picked evidence.
Greenland’s Ice Melt:
- Koonin analyzes data showing that Greenland’s ice melt is not accelerating as rapidly as often reported, highlighting the importance of considering historical data and natural cycles.
- He argues that the focus on human influence alone ignores the significant role of natural variations in the climate, leading to inaccurate conclusions and unnecessary alarm.
- This section provides a specific case study challenging the prevailing narrative about Greenland’s ice sheet, emphasizing the need for a more nuanced understanding of climate dynamics.
- Koonin’s analysis underscores the importance of considering the full range of factors influencing Greenland’s ice sheet, exposing the limitations of a narrow focus solely on human activity.
The Role of Ocean Currents:
- Koonin highlights the significant role of natural variations in ocean currents in driving long-term climate patterns, often overlooked in mainstream discussions.
- These cycles, with their own inherent dynamics, play a crucial role in determining ice melt, sea level rise, and overall climate change, influencing regional and global temperatures.
- Koonin emphasizes the importance of understanding these natural cycles to avoid misinterpreting data and attributing all changes solely to human activity.
- This segment introduces a critical dimension often missing in climate change discussions, revealing the complexity of climate systems and the limitations of attributing all shifts to human influence.
Sea Level Rise and Model Predictions:
- Koonin compares the actual rate of sea level rise over the past century with model projections for the future, arguing that the predictions are overly alarmist and not supported by current observations.
- He raises concerns about the accuracy of climate models, questioning the reliability of their predictions and the potential for overstating the severity of future sea level rise.
- Koonin’s analysis challenges the certainty often presented about future sea level rise, highlighting the need for more robust and accurate models to avoid unnecessary fear and misguided policy decisions.
- This section raises critical questions about the accuracy of climate models and the potential for overstating future sea level rise, underscoring the need for more rigorous scientific scrutiny.
The Economic Impact of Climate Change:
- Koonin examines government reports on the economic impact of climate change, demonstrating that the projected damage is minimal and could be mitigated through steady adaptation and resilience strategies.
- He argues that the focus on catastrophic economic consequences is exaggerated, suggesting a more measured and pragmatic approach to dealing with potential economic impacts.
- Koonin’s analysis challenges the prevailing narrative of economic doom, promoting a more nuanced perspective on the potential economic impacts and emphasizing the potential for adaptation and resilience.
- This segment provides a counterpoint to the alarmist economic forecasts often associated with climate change, highlighting the importance of realistic assessments and pragmatic solutions.
The Economic Impact of Energy Transition:
- Koonin explores the potential costs and disruptions associated with radical energy transition plans, particularly those focused on eliminating fossil fuels, emphasizing the global context.
- He raises concerns about the feasibility of such ambitious plans, highlighting the needs of developing countries, the technological challenges, and the potential for unintended consequences.
- Koonin advocates for a more gradual and nuanced approach to energy transition, recognizing the complexities of the global energy system and the need for practical and sustainable solutions.
- This section delves into the practical and economic aspects of energy transition, challenging the often simplistic narratives surrounding the elimination of fossil fuels and advocating for a more realistic approach.
The Role of Carbon Dioxide:
- Koonin addresses the complex relationship between carbon dioxide and climate change, explaining that while CO2 is a greenhouse gas, it also plays a vital role in plant growth.
- He highlights the “greening” of the planet due to increased CO2 levels, challenging the simplistic narrative that equates carbon dioxide solely with negative impacts.
- Koonin’s analysis provides a more nuanced perspective on CO2, highlighting its role in both climate change and plant growth, promoting a more balanced understanding of the complexities involved.
- This section provides a counterpoint to the often negative portrayals of CO2, highlighting the multifaceted role of this critical element in the Earth’s systems.
The Carbon Cycle and Natural Variations:
- Koonin explains the natural carbon cycle, emphasizing the vast scale of carbon exchange between the atmosphere and Earth’s surface, putting human contributions into perspective.
- He argues that efforts to mitigate climate change should focus on leveraging natural processes, such as tree planting, rather than relying solely on technological solutions.
- Koonin’s analysis highlights the potential for nature-based solutions to address climate change, offering a more sustainable and integrated approach compared to purely technological interventions.
- This segment explores the natural carbon cycle, revealing the interconnectedness of Earth’s systems and the potential for leveraging natural processes to address climate change.
Climate Change as a “Value Judgment”:
- Koonin asserts that the appropriate response to climate change is ultimately a value judgment, not a scientific one, involving weighing risks, costs, benefits, and ethical considerations.
- He emphasizes that policy decisions should not be driven solely by alarmist narratives but should be informed by a balanced understanding of the scientific evidence and a consideration of the broader societal and economic implications.
- Koonin argues for a more nuanced and thoughtful approach to climate policy, acknowledging the need for a broader public discourse that goes beyond fear-mongering and embraces a holistic perspective.
- This section shifts the focus from purely scientific considerations to the broader societal and ethical dimensions of climate change, emphasizing the importance of informed public debate and sound policy decisions.
The Importance of Adaptation and Resilience:
- Koonin emphasizes the importance of adaptation as a primary response to climate change, arguing that it is a more effective and pragmatic approach than seeking to prevent all change.
- He points to the success of human adaptation in the face of past climate fluctuations, emphasizing the ability of societies to adjust and thrive despite significant environmental shifts.
- Koonin advocates for a focus on building resilience, promoting adaptation strategies that address specific challenges and leverage existing resources.
- This segment presents a practical and realistic approach to climate change, highlighting the importance of adaptation and resilience as key tools to manage the challenges of a changing climate.
The Danger of “Climate Science Denial”:
- Koonin critiques the use of the term “climate science denial,” arguing that it is a pejorative and misleading label that stifles genuine debate and prevents nuanced discussion of the scientific uncertainties.
- He emphasizes the need for respectful and open discourse, promoting a collaborative environment where critical questions and dissenting views are welcomed and addressed.
- Koonin argues that labeling any skepticism as “denial” hinders scientific progress and perpetuates a climate of fear and intolerance, preventing productive engagement with complex issues.
- This section addresses the often toxic rhetoric surrounding climate change, advocating for a more civil and intellectually honest approach to scientific discourse.
The Role of the Media:
- Koonin criticizes the media’s tendency to promote alarmist narratives and suppress alternative views on climate change, often misrepresenting scientific findings and silencing dissenting opinions.
- He highlights the need for media accountability and transparency, urging journalists to strive for accuracy, balance, and a more complete representation of scientific findings.
- Koonin’s criticisms underscore the importance of a responsible media landscape that promotes informed public discourse and avoids amplifying fear-mongering and ideological agendas.
- This segment explores the critical role of media in shaping public perception of climate change, emphasizing the need for responsible journalism that accurately and fairly represents the science.
Geoengineering:
- Koonin explores the potential for geoengineering, such as injecting reflective particles into the atmosphere, as a tool to mitigate climate change, acknowledging potential benefits.
- He highlights the significant risks, ethical concerns, and lack of adequate research surrounding geoengineering, advocating for caution and further scientific investigation before any deployment.
- Koonin emphasizes the need for a thorough understanding of the potential consequences of geoengineering before any large-scale implementation, urging for responsible and ethical considerations.
- This section delves into the complex and controversial topic of geoengineering, highlighting the potential benefits and risks and emphasizing the need for careful and responsible scientific exploration.
The Need for Climate and Energy Literacy:
- Koonin underscores the importance of public education on climate science and energy systems, arguing that informed decision-making requires a deeper understanding of the complexities involved.
- He advocates for greater climate and energy literacy, empowering individuals to critically evaluate information, engage in informed discourse, and participate in shaping policy decisions.
- Koonin emphasizes that informed citizens are essential for building a sustainable future, advocating for educational initiatives that promote critical thinking and a nuanced understanding of climate science and energy systems.
- This segment underscores the importance of public engagement and understanding in addressing climate change, advocating for increased literacy and education to facilitate informed decision-making.

5 Memorable Quotes:

“To put it in a British sense, they have over-egged the custard.” – Koonin uses a humorous analogy to describe the exaggerated nature of the alarmist narrative surrounding climate change.
“For a physicist, that’s fighting words.” – Koonin highlights the scientific rigor and skepticism inherent in physics, contrasting it with the less critical approach he sees in some areas of climate science.
“It’s a long game of telephone…” – Koonin describes the distortion of information as it travels from scientific research to policy discussions and public awareness, highlighting the potential for misinformation and misrepresentation.
“…you need to change the energy system, not by tooth extraction, but by off the danger. Slow, steady changes.” – Koonin advocates for a gradual and thoughtful approach to energy transition, rejecting the radical and disruptive changes often proposed.
“…the science is what it is. I’ve tried to portray it accurately, certainties, and uncertainties. What we decide to do about it depends on risk tolerance, intergenerational equity, north-south equity, and just cost-benefit generally. Those are not scientific issues. Those are value issues.” – Koonin emphasizes that the response to climate change is ultimately a societal decision, involving value judgments and ethical considerations, not just scientific data.