JRE #1439 – Michael Osterholm

This podcast dives headfirst into the world of infectious diseases with Michael Osterholm, a renowned epidemiologist, offering insights into the then-emerging COVID-19 pandemic, and exploring other significant disease threats. Osterholm’s expertise and blunt honesty make for a compelling conversation that touches on preparedness, misinformation, and the potential for global disruption.

Provocative topics include the severity of COVID-19, the potential for drug shortages, and the concerning spread of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD). Underlying themes explore the importance of accurate information in a crisis, the fragility of our systems in the face of infectious diseases, and the urgent need for increased public health preparedness.

1. COVID-19: A Looming Threat

• Osterholm emphasizes the severity of COVID-19, predicting that it would be 10 to 15 times worse than the worst seasonal flu year.
• He highlights the virus’s high transmissibility, even before symptoms appear, and the potential for severe outcomes, particularly in older populations and those with underlying health conditions.
• Osterholm cautions against complacency, stating that the pandemic would last for months, not days, and that we are in for a “coronavirus winter.”
• He debunks the myth that COVID-19 only affects older people, referencing data that shows younger people are susceptible, but may not experience severe symptoms.

2. The Importance of Public Health Preparedness

• Osterholm argues that the US was woefully unprepared for the pandemic, highlighting the lack of stockpiled medical supplies, like masks and critical drugs, and the overreliance on global supply chains.
• He points out the irony of the defense department relying on foreign sources for essential drugs, creating a national vulnerability.
• Osterholm advocates for a shift in mindset, from reactive to proactive, investing in public health infrastructure, stockpiles, and vaccine research.
• He emphasizes the importance of having a comprehensive plan in place, not just for dealing with pandemics, but also for responding to other major events, such as natural disasters.

3. The Unseen Threat of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD)

• Osterholm highlights the alarming spread of CWD, a fatal prion disease affecting deer, elk, and other cervids, expressing concern about its potential to infect humans.
• He points to the difficulty of testing for CWD in humans, as a diagnosis often occurs only after death, emphasizing the need for increased surveillance.
• Osterholm advocates for expanded testing of deer, especially for hunters, to prevent the spread of the disease and protect human health.
• He expresses concern about the potential impact of CWD on deer hunting, a crucial aspect of wildlife management and a vital part of many communities.

4. Debunking Myths and Misinformation

• Osterholm debunks the myth that COVID-19 will disappear with warmer weather, citing examples of SARS and MERS, which persist in hot climates.
• He addresses the effectiveness of hand sanitizers, stating that while they are helpful for preventing some infections, they are not a primary defense against COVID-19.
• He explains the limitations of face masks, emphasizing that surgical masks provide minimal protection, while N95 respirators are highly effective but in short supply.
• Osterholm cautions against relying on unproven remedies, such as sauna use, emphasizing the importance of evidence-based practices.

5. The Importance of Accurate Information and Trust

• Osterholm underscores the need for straight talk and transparent communication during a crisis, emphasizing the importance of conveying accurate information, even if it may be concerning.
• He highlights the dangers of misinformation and the impact it can have on public health, particularly in the age of social media.
• Osterholm advocates for building trust between experts and the public, emphasizing the value of open communication and collaboration.
• He emphasizes the importance of critical thinking and seeking reliable sources of information during times of uncertainty.

6. The Power of Vaccines

• Osterholm champions the importance of vaccines, highlighting their role in eradicating or significantly reducing diseases like smallpox and polio.
• He addresses the concerns of anti-vaccine sentiment, emphasizing the need for accurate information and promoting public health initiatives.
• Osterholm emphasizes the importance of prioritization in vaccination programs, ensuring that those most vulnerable are protected, even in the face of other health crises.
• He underscores the need for ongoing research and development of new vaccines, particularly for emerging diseases like COVID-19.

7. The Complexities of Lyme Disease

• Osterholm discusses the history and prevalence of Lyme disease, highlighting its origins in the Upper Midwest and its subsequent spread to the East Coast.
• He delves into the challenges of treating Lyme disease, especially chronic Lyme disease, emphasizing the need for further research into the underlying immune system dysfunction.
• Osterholm advocates for a multi-faceted approach to Lyme disease prevention, including tick control, public education, and improved diagnostic testing.
• He highlights the importance of addressing the needs of patients suffering from Lyme disease, while emphasizing the importance of evidence-based treatments.

8. The Role of Wildlife in Disease Emergence

• Osterholm highlights the role of wildlife in the emergence of infectious diseases, including the “wet markets” in China, where close contact between humans and wild animals can facilitate the spread of viruses.
• He underscores the importance of wildlife management and public health interventions to prevent future outbreaks.
• Osterholm discusses the ongoing threat of emerging diseases from both known and unknown sources, emphasizing the need for vigilance and preparedness.
• He suggests that we must learn from past pandemics and recognize that infectious diseases are a constant threat, requiring a global response.

5 Memorable Quotes

• “This is not one that to take lightly. And I think that’s what I can understand. If you say it was only about 10 deaths or 20 deaths or 50 deaths. Just remember, 2 weeks ago, we were talking about almost no cases in the United States. And now that we’re testing for it and watching the spread as it’s unfolding, those numbers going up astronomically.”
• “I keep telling people we’re handling this like it’s a corona blizzard. 2 or 3 days — Mhmm. — back to normal. This is a coronavirus winter. And we’re gonna have the next 3 months or more, 6 months or more. that are going to be like this.”
• “We are at risk. So even the situation is unfold, it’s not just about what the virus does to you, it’s about what the entire system is rigged up to be, and what this virus does once it gets into it.”
• “The chronic wasting one really scares me because there’s so many people that have a vested interest in dismissing it. I had our good friend, Doug Duran. Yep. on the podcast with I don’t remember the gentleman that he brought with us. Ryan Richards. Thank you. Ryan Richards who explained the science behind it. And there are so many people that are dismissing this because either they enjoy deer hunting or they they want captive servants to be something that are still something that you could be released on private property.”
• “I think the big thing is eventually enough people get infected where it’ll be like putting ractors in the rods, you know, rods in the reaction, I should say. And then that stops it by itself. But Oh so. Because if you’re if if 2 of the 3 of us in this room were immune right now to it because we’d had it and recovered and had protection because natural protection, then I couldn’t transmit to anybody. So that’s what’s gonna happen. If you get enough people who get infected, ultimately, then it’ll slow down, stop transmission that way, but that’s a heck of a price to pay to get there.”