JRE #1793 – Mike Baker

19-Mar-22

This podcast features Mike Baker, a former CIA covert operations officer and CEO of Portman Square Group, a global intelligence firm. Baker, also the host of “Black Files Declassified” on Discovery+, dives deep into a range of provocative topics, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the intelligence community, the global arms market, and the implications of technological advancements like hypersonic weapons. He shares insightful perspectives on the challenges of gathering intelligence on leaders like Putin, the dangers of censorship in a free society, and the complexities of navigating a world where information spreads rapidly and the lines between truth and falsehood blur.

This podcast is a treasure trove of topics. Here are some of the key areas that Baker explores:

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict:

• Putin’s Plans and Intentions: Baker analyses the history of Putin’s actions and his stated desire to rebuild Russia’s sphere of influence. He argues that Putin’s actions are consistent with his stated intentions, suggesting that the intelligence community may have missed the obvious.
• Intelligence Failures: Baker points to a lack of intelligence regarding Putin’s specific plans and intentions, highlighting the challenges of gathering intelligence on a leader who is deeply secretive and increasingly isolated.
• The Oligarchs: Baker delves into Putin’s relationship with the oligarchs, who he once reigned in but now sees as potential threats due to their criticisms of the war. Putin’s anger toward the oligarchs underscores the importance of maintaining control over those who might challenge his authority.
• Global Implications: Baker examines the broader global implications of the conflict, including how China is capitalizing on the situation to gain economic and geopolitical advantage, and how the conflict is driving energy prices and inflation worldwide.

Intelligence Gathering and the Intelligence Community:

• Recruitment: Baker explains the intricate process of recruiting human intelligence assets, emphasizing the importance of building positive relationships rather than relying on blackmail or negative leverage. He discusses the challenges of penetrating the tightly controlled inner circles of powerful leaders like Putin.
• The Editing Process: Baker highlights how raw intelligence collected in the field undergoes a complex editing process in Washington, where it is analyzed, assessed, and potentially spun to fit a particular agenda. He emphasizes the importance of preserving the integrity of raw intelligence and minimizing the potential for distortion.
• The Apolitical Nature of the Intelligence Community: Baker argues that the intelligence community should be as apolitical as possible, avoiding partisan biases. He cautions against the dangers of intelligence agencies siding with one party or candidate over another, as it could lead to the selective withholding or manipulation of information.
• The Role of Career Personnel: Baker acknowledges the importance of career intelligence officers who provide stability and institutional knowledge within the intelligence community. He suggests that this continuity helps to mitigate the risks associated with frequent changes in leadership and political agendas.

The State of American Politics and Society:

• The Impact of Short-Term Politicians: Baker criticizes the 4-year electoral cycle in the US, arguing that it hinders long-term strategic planning and creates a constant state of flux in the government. He believes this system undermines the effectiveness of the government, particularly in areas like national security and intelligence.
• The Dangers of Censorship: Baker expresses concern about the growing trend of censorship on social media and within mainstream media. He argues that stifling debate and suppressing information that makes people uncomfortable creates a dangerous precedent and hinders the pursuit of truth.
• The Allure and Danger of Dogma: Baker contrasts critical thinking with critical theory, arguing that the latter often operates as a form of dogma that seeks to suppress opposing perspectives. He warns against the dangers of ideologies that cannot withstand scrutiny and the need to constantly question and challenge accepted narratives.
• The Importance of Open Communication: Baker advocates for open and honest communication as the only way to discern truth from falsehood in a world saturated with information. He emphasizes the dangers of hiding information, stifling debate, and allowing misinformation to flourish.

Technological Advancements and their Impact:

• Hypersonic Weapons: Baker discusses the implications of hypersonic weapons, which travel at speeds that make them virtually impossible to intercept. He acknowledges the existential threat they pose to national security and the need for countermeasures.
• Cyber Warfare: Baker explores the emerging threat of cyber warfare and the potential for disrupting critical infrastructure like power grids. He highlights the need for robust cybersecurity measures and the challenges of establishing rules of engagement in an increasingly digitalized battle space.
• The Weaponization of Space: Baker discusses the weaponization of space, another emerging theatre of war, and its potential for disruption and conflict. He acknowledges the profound implications for national security and the need for international cooperation to address this new frontier.
• The Role of Technology in Shaping the World: Baker explores the broader implications of technological advancements, suggesting that those who can master new technologies like hypersonic weapons and cyber warfare will hold significant power and influence in the future.

Memorable Quotes:

• “The Putin thing scares the shit out of me though, because he’s the, you know, when it comes to warlords, he’s a legitimate warlord.”
• “Everybody’s got enough [nukes] to kill everybody. Three times over?”
• “I think he’s not crazy. He’s not going to say, okay, I’m in a corner, I’m going to push the button and fire off a couple of tactical nukes.”
• “We missed the boat on that [Ukraine]. We missed it in part because we were always trying to be optimistic and trying to think, okay. Well, maybe they think like we do. Maybe there’s a rational process there.”
• “I think what saves the system is what you pointed out, which is you’ve got career personnel. Right? And they really do run the country, basically. Have the folks that are there, the the civil service group, the folks who now if government gets too large, what you could argue what already has, then you got a problem. You got entrenched, you know, folks who, you know, maybe I I don’t know. I’d so I’m a little conflicted on that, but certainly for the Intel service.”